Germany’s expression of deep concern over the escalation in southern Yemen highlights its longstanding commitment to stability in the Middle East, particularly amid risks to humanitarian conditions and regional security. This statement, issued on December 30, 2025, underscores Berlin’s diplomatic vigilance as Saudi-UAE tensions flare over a port strike in Mukalla, threatening Yemen’s fragile peace process.
Escalation at Mukalla Port
The recent crisis erupted when Saudi Arabia conducted a limited airstrike on Mukalla Port in Hadramout province, targeting what it described as an unauthorized weapons shipment destined for UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces. Saudi officials claimed the operation neutralized combat vehicles and arms unloaded from a vessel that had disabled its tracking devices, framing it as a defensive measure to protect national security and coalition unity. In response, Yemen’s Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council, led by Rashad al-Alimi, declared a 90-day state of emergency, imposed a 72-hour blockade on borders, and terminated a defense agreement with the UAE, demanding its forces withdraw within 24 hours.
The STC, controlling much of southern Yemen, rejected withdrawal calls, with spokesperson Anwar Al-Tamimi vowing to fortify positions and defend territorial gains against perceived northern encroachments. This incident marks a rare public fracture between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, coalition partners since 2015, exacerbating factional divides in a war already claiming over 377,000 lives by UN estimates. Germany’s Foreign Office statement explicitly referenced the Mukalla unrest, noting its potential to derail anti-Houthi efforts and inflame proxy dynamics involving Iran. Berlin warned that such escalations risk broader instability, including disruptions to Red Sea shipping lanes critical for global trade, where Houthi attacks have already surged in 2025.
Humanitarian fallout looms large, with Hadramout’s ports handling aid vital for 18 million Yemenis facing acute food insecurity; any prolonged closure could spike famine risks in a nation where 80% rely on imports. German diplomats emphasized restraint, echoing calls from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio for diplomacy over military posturing. This positioning aligns with Europe’s energy security concerns, as Yemen’s chaos indirectly bolsters oil price volatility amid OPEC+ adjustments.
Germany’s diplomatic statement
Issued Tuesday from Berlin, the statement articulated “deep concern” over southern Yemen’s developments, pinpointing Mukalla as a flashpoint and the UAE’s announced withdrawal of remaining counterterrorism forces. Officials urged all parties Saudi-led coalition, STC, and local factions to prioritize dialogue and de-escalation, stressing the international community’s role in sustaining peace initiatives. This reflects Germany’s multilateral approach, consistent with its 2025 Yemen strategy paper advocating UN-led talks and arms embargo enforcement. Unlike more interventionist powers, Berlin avoids direct military involvement, focusing instead on humanitarian funding of €500 million pledged since 2015 and Track II diplomacy via the EU.
The timing amplifies its weight: post-UAE disengagement announcement, which Abu Dhabi framed as concluding its mission amid safety risks, not defeat. Germany highlighted withdrawal’s dual edges, reducing foreign footprints to empower Yemenis, yet creating vacuums exploitable by Houthis or al-Qaeda affiliates entrenched in Hadramout. Critics note Berlin’s statement omits direct condemnation of the airstrike, balancing ties with Riyadh (a key arms buyer) and Abu Dhabi (economic partner via trade deals). Nonetheless, it reinforces Germany’s normative foreign policy, prioritizing civilian protection under international humanitarian law, as seen in prior critiques of coalition bombings.
Saudi-UAE coalition fractures
Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened in Yemen in 2015 to restore President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi against Houthi advances, but divergences emerged by 2019 when Abu Dhabi scaled back, pivoting to STC support for a federal south. The Mukalla strike represents peak discord: Riyadh views STC armament as a “red line” undermining unified command, while UAE denies weapons involvement, admitting only vehicle transfers for its troops. Saudi Foreign Ministry labeled UAE actions “extremely dangerous,” signaling eroded trust after years of joint operations that quelled Houthi expansions but fueled separatist ambitions.
Post-strike, al-Alimi’s rhetoric accused UAE of “directing STC military escalation,” prompting agreement cancellations and expulsion ultimatums. STC counters by claiming victories over Houthis and terrorism, positioning itself as a southern guardian against “northern aggression.” UAE’s withdrawal of its last forces post-2019 pullout completes a strategic retreat, redirecting focus to Horn of Africa bases and domestic stability amid economic strains. Germany perceives this rift as jeopardizing the fragile Riyadh Agreement (2019), which integrated STC into governance but faltered amid 2025 offensives. Fractures weaken anti-Houthi fronts, emboldening Tehran-backed rebels who control Sana’a and launch drone strikes on Saudi infrastructure.
Humanitarian and stability risks
Yemen’s war has displaced 4.5 million and risks cholera resurgence, with southern escalations compounding UN warnings of 2026 catastrophe. Mukalla’s port strike halts aid flows; Hadramout hosts IDP camps serving 200,000, now vulnerable to shortages as blockades bite. Germany’s alert to “serious risks to humanitarian conditions” invokes Geneva Conventions, urging protection of civilians amid potential STC-government clashes. Stability threats extend regionally: Houthi exploitation could reignite Red Sea attacks, hiking shipping insurance by 300% in 2024-25 and inflating European import costs.
Proxy escalations draw in actors like Iran (Houthi drones) and al-Qaeda (Hadramout safe havens), per German assessments mirroring U.S. intelligence. Refugee spillovers strain Oman and Djibouti, while oil chokepoints like Bab al-Mandab amplify global stakes 20% of liquefied gas transits here. Berlin’s concern dovetails with G7 pleas for ceasefires, as 2025 truce talks stalled over Houthi demands. Without restraint, southern fragmentation could balkanize Yemen, perpetuating aid dependency and radicalization cycles.
Broader regional geopolitics
Southern Yemen’s volatility intersects Gulf power plays, U.S. counterterrorism, and great-power rivalries. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Yemen quagmire drains Vision 2030 funds, prompting strike assertiveness to deter separatism mirroring its Kurdish policy. UAE’s pivot prioritizes Ethiopia-Somaliland pacts, viewing Yemen as sunk cost after STC empowerment. Houthis leverage chaos, aligning with Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel normalization, as the 2025 Gaza spillover fuels recruitment.
Germany, as a non-permanent UNSC member (2025-26), pushes for special envoy revival, critiquing vetoes blocking resolutions. EU partners like France echo concerns, tying aid to de-escalation metrics. Transatlantic alignment sees Rubio’s restraint call, amid U.S. base protections in Hadramout. China’s neutral stance via spokesperson remarks prioritizes sovereignty, contrasting Berlin’s proactive engagement. Russia’s commentary on Hadramaut-Mahrah notes similar alarms, hinting multipolar scrutiny.
Germany’s policy implications
Berlin’s intervention reaffirms “responsibility to protect” in fragile states, blending soft power with principled stances. It pressures Riyadh-Abu Dhabi reconciliation via backchannels, leveraging arms export leverage Germany supplied 10% of Saudi Leopard tanks pre-2018 halt. Humanitarian pledges may surge, building on €100 million 2025 allocation for WFP/UNICEF. Domestically, it bolsters Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s peace diplomacy amid coalition debates on Middle East arms sales.
Long-term, Germany eyes Stockholm Agreement (2022) revival for Taiz frontlines, linking south stability to nationwide truce. Risks include blowback if ignored: migration surges to Europe (Yemenis via Libya routes) and energy shocks. Success metrics involve port reopenings and STC dialogue by Q1 2026. Ultimately, Berlin’s voice amplifies calls for inclusive Yemeni-led solutions, averting quagmire redux.
